Posts Tagged ‘royalties’

EnWave technology a potential game changer

Sunday, January 24th, 2010

VOX / TECHNOLOGY / FOOD

Report on Business: Globe Investor Column

EnWave technology a potential game changer

FABRICE TAYLOR

4 December 2009

The Globe and Mail

Sometimes you get lucky with acronyms. EnWave Corp., developer of the “radiant energy vacuum,” certainly did with REV.

But it’s got a lot more than a catchy nickname. It has a potentially game-changing technology that will create a lot of wealth and value if successful.

The story starts with food – drying it more precisely.

For decades, people have been using freeze dryers to do it, which involves, as the name implies, lowering the temperature and sublimating the moisture out of food.

It works fine, but the radiant energy vacuum appears to work much better. Developed by food scientist Dr. Tim Durance while at the University of British Columbia (EnWave is basically a spinoff of the school), REV technology uses microwaves and a vacuum to do what a freezer does.

But it does it far more cheaply, in terms of both equipment and operating expenses, and with better results.

EnWave says capital costs are about a sixth of freeze drying while energy costs are about a third. It’s far faster and, because it’s continuous rather than done in huge batches à la freeze drying, it’s more convenient and cheaper still.

The food is comparable in nutritional value and taste and in some cases looks better, the company says.

To test those claims, I found an ideal source: a customer. EnWave sold its first nutraREV machine to a B.C. company earlier this year, privately held Cal-San Enterprises, a blueberry grower and wine maker. They confirm what EnWave says.

Cal-San has been tinkering with various drying technologies for a decade. It chose EnWave’s because it found that the capital and operating costs were substantially lower. The science and the UBC pedigree also helped in terms of credibility.

What’s more interesting is that the product is better; the berries look more like fresh or frozen ones than dried.

Cal-San, which has territorial exclusivity agreements with EnWave, told me that this is opening up big opportunities. Food companies, from bakeries to snack food and cereal makers, are clamouring for product. And given the improvements over freeze dried, they should fetch a premium on top of having lower costs.

Cal-San wouldn’t say what returns it might earn on this investment other than to describe them as “healthy.” It is planning on buying another machine in the new year to ramp up production.

This is obviously promising for EnWave and its shareholders. First, it’s a validation of the technology. Second, it’s a lead order and they usually make subsequent ones easier. Finally, EnWave has an interesting strategy for earning revenue. It charges for the machines, but also wants to earn a small royalty on the sale of products the machines make.

EnWave’s technologies go beyond food though. They’re also being tested and developed for vaccines, probiotics, enzymes and other things. There are encouraging test results and impressive alliances with respect to these businesses. EnWave, for example, is testing the use of its technology on bacterial cultures and probiotics with global food giant Danisco.

I interrogated co-CEO John McNicol for this column, and he held up well. He’s focused, to the point, and has an impressive track record of creating value.

As for numbers, the market for freeze-drying equipment is $1.8-billion (U.S.). Carving out a piece of that should produce profits.

The real juice is in the royalties. The company says the addressable market of applicable products (dried foods, antibodies, vaccines etc.) will be $120-billion in about a decade using current growth rates. (I couldn’t verify those numbers, but can say that the market is huge.) Getting just 2 per cent of that market and earning a 2-per-cent royalty on it would yield income of almost $50-million – and keep in mind there are no costs against that income other than taxes and royalties payable to UBC. On top of that there are manufacturing profits. If things keep going as they have, though, EnWave will likely be bought before then.

There are the usual small-cap risks to the story of course, but on the positive side EnWave isn’t reinventing the wheel; demand for what it wants to sell exists already and, for what it’s worth, I’d say the rewards do seem to compensate for the risks.

***

EnWave’s potential

Looking out to 2018, there are several potentially lucrative markets for EnWave. The two scenarios below estimate how much the company could potentially earn.

2018 estimates

Addressable              Size in U.S. $

Market                   Billions

Food                     $5

Probiotics               $5

Enzymes                  $9

Vaccines                 $39

Antibodies               $62

Total                    About $120

Scenario A Scenario B

Assumed penetration rate 2%         5%

Assumed royalty          2%         5%

Gross royalties          $48M       $300M

Source: EnWave

Royalties might be best alternative to flow-through shares

Saturday, January 23rd, 2010
VOX / ENERGY
Report on Business: Globe Investor Column
Royalties might be best alternative to flow-through shares
FABRICE TAYLOR
765 words
15 July 2009
GLOB
B10
English
2009 CTVglobemedia Publishing Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Fabrice Taylor is a chartered financial analyst.

ftaylor@globeandmail.com

Flow through is dead; long live flow through. That sums up what’s happening to this kind of financing as far as the oil patch is concerned.

As predicted here a few months ago, traditional flow through is almost dead. I didn’t make any friends among people who sold the stuff, but my reasoning was sound: The market had become way too big. There just isn’t enough exploration success in Canada to support the billions chasing it via flow through. It hasn’t disappeared, nor will it, but it has been drastically cut down to size.

But good financiers live and die by their creativity and they’ve given us another very interesting and more intelligent way to get tax deferral and upside on energy prices.

The product I’m looking at is called the WCSB Oil & Gas Royalty LP. Although it is lumped into the flow-through category because it offers good tax benefits, it’s actually quite different than what you’ve come to expect from that heading.

The first distinction is where your money will be put to work. Rather than chasing exploration, where the real success rate is less than 20 per cent, this fund (the third fund from WCSB) will pursue development drilling. The difference between development and exploration is that the former involves drilling a hole where you’re fairly sure there’s oil, such as between two other producing wells. You don’t typically find elephants this way, but the success rate is much higher. WCSB predicted 70 per cent for its first two funds, but so far is batting 100 per cent.

The second distinction is that, as the name implies, the fund is buying GORRs – gross over-riding royalties. Royalties are sweet assets because you get paid first; your cash comes right off the revenue line, second only to the government’s royalty collectors. You don’t have the risks of cost overruns and so on. And you’re getting a cash return on your money. You also have a certain upside if commodity prices go up. You’re not investing in a highly geared oil equity that can make you tons of money through capital gain (or lose you money the same way), but it’s relatively safe and stable.

And you get tax benefits, the difference being it takes longer to run your writeoffs through – about five years, as opposed to one year for exploration flow through.

Based on conversations I’ve had with sharp oil and gas minds here in Calgary, I think royalties will become a prevailing source of financing for small energy companies. It will probably be a long time before they can borrow enough to finance their budgets, at least on terms that make sense. And because most of them trade at a discount to what they’re probably really worth, they can’t issue stock in an economic matter.

So producers are warming to the idea, too. They get other benefits: A royalty doesn’t show up as debt, because it isn’t debt. It only costs them if their drills are successful.

As to success, WCSB’s previous offerings are showing very good results. The first fund, launched last year when oil prices and therefore royalty prices were high, promised the first monthly distribution by the end of June, but paid it six weeks early. At 60 cents a unit, it represents a cash yield of between 7 and 10 per cent.

The second fund raised and deployed capital at a more fortuitous time. It also started distributing early, and looks to sport an annual yield of between 14 and 18 per cent. Plus there are the substantial tax benefits on top of that.

The potential downside is obvious: Although royalties spare you some management risks, they don’t spare you the trouble of lousy drill results. So far, WCSB is doing better than it thought, but that’s no guarantee. Drilling development wells is safer than drilling for new finds, however. And as a retail product it’s not cheap, but scarcity has its value, and this is scarce.

This isn’t to say that exploratory flow through is a bad idea, but you’re better off investing in these products in proportion to the relative sizes of the markets, and that means more of the production variety and less of the exploration kind.

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