Posts Tagged ‘quebec’

A little gold company that does it right

Sunday, January 24th, 2010
VOX: COMMODITIES
Report on Business: Globe Investor Column
A little gold company that does it right
FABRICE TAYLOR
754 words
30 January 2009

‘I’d rather be the hunter than the hunted,” says Tye Burt, who runs Kinross Gold Corp.

Curious comment given that it came on the very day Kinross announced a bought deal to raise as much as $415-million (U.S.), which would bring its cash hoard to nearly $1-billion. That’s kind of like walking into a meet market in a miniskirt insisting that you don’t like attention. A billion idle bucks is a lot of lipstick. Hunters notice.

Mr. Burt acknowledges that Kinross doesn’t need the money but wants to take advantage of the fact that junior companies can’t raise any money and are ripe for the picking.

Not to pick on Kinross – almost all the sizable gold companies are raising money or will – but this is the problem with the gold mining industry: It produces more share certificates than bullion.

Granted, gold mining is a hysterically brutal industry. Those beautiful, shiny gold bars you see in annual reports belie the sweat, blood and tears that go into wresting that metal from the ground. Still, it can be done in a way that creates value, but I don’t think you do that by hosing out shares every time your multiple gets high enough to ring the bell. Kinross’s is a rich 34 times earnings, or 25 if you look ahead a year.

Even investment bankers seem to agree: As one of them told The Globe, referring to gold issuers, “everybody is going to come to the trough.” Well put.

After all, besides potentially (if not most probably) diluting your investors, what does selling stock say to the world? If gold is going higher, won’t your cash flow? Why not rely on that to make acquisitions?

Maybe Kinross et al will create value but they’re handicapped by their predilection for financial engineering as opposed to mining engineering. There are exceptions to this rule, though. Take a little company called Wesdome Gold Mines. Chances are you’ve never heard of it even though it operates 17 per cent of the underground gold mines in Canada. That’s two of 12, and truth be told, they are probably the two smallest – Wesdome’s production is running at about 80,000 ounces annually. The market capitalization is a mere $104-million.

But it is making real money. Two weeks ago, Wesdome sold gold for $1,008 (Canadian) an ounce. Last week, it sold production for $1,107 an ounce. Every $10 change means about a penny of earnings per share. On a share price of a buck, that counts. It’s nice that gold is rising while the Canadian dollar falls.

But it’s also nice that the company’s share count hasn’t ballooned over the years. In fact, Wesdome has bought back some shares, cleverly at that: The company issued flow-through shares above market last year and, using free cash flow, repurchased the same number in the market under a normal course issuer bid, basically executing an arbitrage and netting $400,000 of free money.

One of Wesdome’s mines, called Kiena, is in the Val d’Or region of Quebec, the other, Eagle River, is in Northern Ontario. Both have short lives as things stand but they also have interesting prospects and are spinning off cash.

Here’s what I like most about Wesdome, though, and it has nothing to do with numbers or ratios. Over dinner with two of the senior executives the other day, I asked them what keeps them up at night. The answer to that question is typically a worry about something. The answer this time was immediate and mutual: Their high hopes for a new zone at Kiena that, if all works out, could substantially increase the mine life and the value of the business (both have substantial amounts of their wealth in Wesdome shares).

Wesdome is a tiny player. It deserves to trade at a discount to its bigger rivals. But that discount looks too high.

***

Fabrice Taylor is a chartered financial analyst.

ftaylor@globeandmail.com

***

CLARIFICATION

In a recent column on Gildan Activewear, I said the company recently changed the way it presents its cash flow in its public documents. This may have caused some confusion. The company’s disclosure is transparent, however it does highlight some of its cash flow figures differently compared to last year.

Illustration

Document GLOB000020090130e51u0001c

‘Golden’ opportunities don’t come cheap

Thursday, January 21st, 2010
VOX: MINING
Report on Business: Globe Investor Column
‘Golden’ opportunities don’t come cheap
FABRICE TAYLOR
677 words
11 February 2009
GLOB
B17
English
2009 CTVglobemedia Publishing Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Is Osisko Mining‘s management lucky or unlucky? The company needed a few hundred million bucks to build a mine on its Northern Quebec property. On Feb. 3 it announced a deal to raise $250-million. Such was the clamour for a piece of the action that the offering was jacked up to as high as $400-million the next day.

While investors who wanted in were happy, the company’s newest shareholders weren’t wallowing in mirth. On Jan. 28, the stock changed hands at $4.45. Four trading days later, when the bought deal was announced, the stock was $5.45 – apparently driven higher by promising drilling results.

That was a short-lived quote, brought down by the financing, which was pegged at $4.55 with warrants that will be worth something if the stock moves above $5.45 – a nod, perhaps, to that fleeting high price. The upshot is that management and the Street may have doubted the market’s valuation of the company. If so, there might be good reason for that.

Osisko is a hot ticket. Its property is the Canadian Malartic project, which was mined and shuttered in a bygone era of much lower gold prices. At today’s price, the resource looks good, and the company now has the money to build a mine, so odds are excellent that it will be a producer, and a good-sized one at that.

Over its 10-year life, according to the prospectus, the mine will crank out on average 591,000 ounces of gold a year off a proven and probable reserve base of 6.3 million ounces. The operating cost is pegged at $319 (U.S.) an ounce. Capital expenditures are estimated at $146 an ounce (and some of that has been spent. The company needs $119 an ounce to finish.) With gold at $914 an ounce, the economics look great. But if you needed any more convincing, the internal rate of return for the project, we are informed by the prospectus, is a juicy 29 per cent.

Ready to invest? Maybe a little more due diligence is in order first. Let’s start with the sobering fact that the prospectus cites a feasibility study that pegs the net present value of the project at $1-billion, but that’s before tax. After tax it has to be less. The company’s market capitalization, assuming the overallotment on the deal kicks in and the warrants are exercised later this year, would be $1.6-billion (Canadian).

That valuation is based on gold prices of $775 (U.S.) an ounce, which seems conservative if you think gold has legs. But the operating costs are based on rates prevailing in the third quarter of 2008. Gold does well in inflation but financial models for gold companies do better without any (many companies, to be fair, fix expenses).

Most importantly, the valuation uses a discount rate of 5 per cent to give future profits a value in today’s dollars. That is not unusual, but it’s absurdly low. Gold mining is risky, so 15 per cent seems like a minimum, but even at say 12 per cent, the difference can be huge. For instance, a profit of $600 per ounce four years from now is worth $490 today using 5 per cent but only $380 using 12 per cent.

The market isn’t stupid: Clearly Osisko has the hallmarks of a good project since it appears to be breezing through its financing so easily. Boosters will say the company has other potential projects that are worth something. We’ll see.

But the fact is that sexy gold concerns always sell for a big premium. That doesn’t mean they won’t make you money, by any means. But you have to be mindful of this before you buy them because sometimes premiums disappear at inopportune times.

Fabrice Taylor is chartered financial analyst.

ftaylor@globeandmail.com

Illustration

Document GLOB000020090211e52b0001n