Archive for March, 2010

Sprott’s simple gold stock formula

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

I wasn’t able to fit this into the column I wrote on Eric Sprott, but there are two things worth sharing: first, the stock is in my view attractive. The downside is limited and if – IF – he manages to get all of his big bets, gold, oil, and a bearish market view, to pay off, the performance fees the firm will generate are HUGE.

Also, here’s how he picks gold shares: using today’s gold price, if you can buy the stock for less than two times pre-tax earnings two years out, do it. I’m sure he uses a little gut instinct, but that’s the basic idea.

Mutual funds are classic rip-offs

Monday, March 15th, 2010

Where are the customers yachts: heard the story? A man visits an acquaintance who works on Wall Street who takes him on a tour that includes the local marina, where he shows off the brokers’ boats, the bigger bankers’ boats, the even bigger vice-presidents’ boats and finally the regal presidents’ boats. Says the visitor: “But where are the customers’ boats?”

It’s a parable for the ages. Sadly, the vast majority don’t realize how relentlessly they’re ripped off by the financial industry. The whole system is set up in such a way that your savings feed a lot of people – or buy them yachts. Click here for more details.

My one and only CIBC

Wednesday, March 3rd, 2010

It’s been almost a year since I recommended CIBC as the bank stock to own. The argument was almost embarrassingly simple: although historically the most accident prone of the banks, it was, and is, becoming the most retail. That bet appears to be paying off judging from the performance of CIBC against Royal, which missed expectations today, and TD, the other bank darling. CIBC has outperformed handily over the past six months:

CIBC vs 6 months

and is closing the gap over the past year:

CIBC vs 1 year

I think this bet has long legs. I suspect professional money managers will come to the same conclusion but in their inevitably Johnny-come-lately way, making for a good opportunity for the little guy.